What the world's activists, and Congress, just bought
When a famous investor crosses a disclosure threshold, 5% in Japan, 3% in the UK, they must report it. When a member of the US Congress trades a stock, they must report that too. These are those filings: the most recent stakes and buys from the people worth watching, straight from the public record.
No forecast, no recommendation. Just what they bought, when, and how much. The same honesty rule as the rest of the site.
546 disclosures · 66 investors + members · Japan (EDINET) · UK (FCA) · Korea (DART) · US Congress (STOCK Act) · crypto (Arkham onchain) · prediction markets (Polymarket + Kalshi)
Japan, 82 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Asset Value Investors | 多木化学株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2026-07-02 | Oasis Management | 株式会社インフォマート | 5.1% |
| 2026-06-18 | Strategic Capital | 株式会社ニップン | 5.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | Oasis Management | データセクション株式会社 | 9.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | Simplex Asset Management | 日本航空電子工業株式会社 | 5.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | Elliott Management | ＮＩＰＰＯＮ ＥＸＰＲＥＳＳホールディングス株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | Oasis Management | 株式会社ニチレイ | 5.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | Oasis Management | 近畿車輛株式会社 | 7.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | Oasis Management | カヤバ株式会社 | 5.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | Asset Value Investors | 愛眼株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | Silchester International | 関西ペイント株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2026-02-28 | 3D Investment Partners | Ｊ. フロント リテイリング株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2026-02-13 | Simplex Asset Management | スバル興業株式会社 | 5.4% |
| 2026-02-05 | Strategic Capital | 株式会社Ａ＆Ｄホロンホールディングス | 5.2% |
| 2026-02-02 | Strategic Capital | KHネオケム株式会社 | 5.5% |
| 2026-01-31 | Oasis Management | コムシスホールディングス株式会社 | 5.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | Asset Value Investors | サクサ株式会社 | 6.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | 株式会社インターネットイニシアティブ | 8.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | 株式会社プラスアルファ・コンサルティング | 8.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | 東京製鐵株式会社 | 6.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 3D Investment Partners | カシオ計算機株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | SPARX Asset Management | 株式会社ヒット | 5.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | 市光工業株式会社 | 5.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | 株式会社ＫＡＤＯＫＡＷＡ | 11.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | カナデビア株式会社 | 5.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | Oasis Management | ニッコンホールディングス株式会社 | 7.1% |
| 2025-12-10 | Oasis Management | 株式会社フェローテック | 8.5% |
| 2025-11-28 | SPARX Asset Management | 株式会社ＬＩＴＡＬＩＣＯ | 5.3% |
| 2025-11-28 | Asset Value Investors | 株式会社三陽商会 | 8.4% |
| 2025-11-14 | Simplex Asset Management | 霞が関ホテルリート投資法人 | 5.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | Effissimo Capital | 株式会社ソフト９９コーポレーション | 35.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | Asset Value Investors | 株式会社アイネス | 6.0% |
| 2025-11-11 | Oasis Management | 株式会社エス・エム・エス | 7.8% |
| 2025-11-11 | Elliott Management | 株式会社豊田自動織機 | 6.7% |
| 2025-11-10 | Asset Value Investors | フォスター電機株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | Oasis Management | 株式会社カカクコム | 5.2% |
| 2025-10-31 | Asset Value Investors | 株式会社アシロ | 9.9% |
| 2025-10-14 | Oasis Management | イオンフィナンシャルサービス株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | Oasis Management | ニデック株式会社 | 6.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | Oasis Management | エア・ウォーター株式会社 | 6.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | Athanase Industrial Partner | 株式会社TBK | 6.3% |
| 2025-08-27 | Effissimo Capital | 太平洋工業株式会社 | 5.5% |
| 2025-08-15 | Misaki Capital | KeePer技研株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2025-08-08 | Oasis Management | 株式会社堀場製作所 | 9.9% |
| 2025-07-15 | SPARX Asset Management | 株式会社ＳＨＯＥＩ | 5.3% |
| 2025-07-10 | Strategic Capital | ノリタケ株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | Simplex Asset Management | 石原ケミカル株式会社 | 8.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | Oasis Management | カルビー株式会社 | 7.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | Oasis Management | 芝浦機械株式会社 | 5.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | Simplex Asset Management | 三菱ロジスネクスト株式会社 | 5.6% |
| 2025-06-26 | Oasis Management | カシオ計算機株式会社 | 5.2% |
| 2025-06-26 | Dalton Investments | アニコム ホールディングス株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2025-06-24 | Strategic Capital | 株式会社オリエントコーポレーション | 5.2% |
| 2025-06-13 | Symphony Financial Partners | 丸全昭和運輸株式会社 | 5.2% |
| 2025-05-28 | Dalton Investments | センコーグループホールディングス株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2025-05-27 | Taiyo Pacific Partners | スター精密株式会社 | 35.7% |
| 2025-04-28 | 3D Investment Partners | 三井倉庫ホールディングス株式会社 | 5.1% |
| 2025-04-15 | SPARX Asset Management | 株式会社ヒューマンテクノロジーズ | 5.1% |
| 2025-02-14 | SPARX Asset Management | 前田工繊株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | Asset Value Investors | 株式会社シンクロ・フード | 8.5% |
| 2024-12-31 | Simplex Asset Management | ゼネラルパッカー株式会社 | 4.7% |
| 2024-12-31 | Asset Value Investors | ヘリオス テクノ ホールディング株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | Asset Value Investors | わかもと製薬株式会社 | 7.4% |
| 2024-12-31 | Oasis Management | エン・ジャパン株式会社 | 5.9% |
| 2024-12-31 | Asset Value Investors | 倉敷紡績株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | Simplex Asset Management | 株式会社ハリマビステム | 7.1% |
| 2024-12-05 | Simplex Asset Management | 堺化学工業株式会社 | 7.1% |
| 2024-11-13 | Farallon Capital | ニッコンホールディングス株式会社 | 10.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | Elliott Management | 東京瓦斯株式会社 | 5.0% |
| 2024-11-11 | Oasis Management | 株式会社トプコン | 10.6% |
| 2024-11-07 | Oasis Management | 花王株式会社 | 5.2% |
| 2024-11-06 | Oasis Management | 太陽ホールディングス株式会社 | 8.0% |
| 2024-11-05 | Oasis Management | 株式会社メルカリ | 5.4% |
| 2024-11-01 | Oasis Management | ＮＥＣネッツエスアイ株式会社 | 13.1% |
| 2024-10-31 | Oasis Management | 株式会社マクロミル | 7.1% |
| 2024-10-15 | Effissimo Capital | コニカミノルタ株式会社 | 5.8% |
| 2024-10-08 | Strategic Capital | ガンホー・オンライン・エンターテイメント株式会社 | 5.5% |
| 2024-09-30 | 3D Investment Partners | 株式会社スクウェア・エニックス・ホールディングス | 5.5% |
| 2024-08-30 | Simplex Asset Management | 株式会社パシフィックネット | 5.4% |
| 2024-08-20 | Strategic Capital | 山洋電気株式会社 | 5.2% |
| 2024-08-09 | Misaki Capital | 株式会社ミルボン | 5.0% |
| 2024-08-06 | Oasis Management | コクヨ株式会社 | 5.0% |
United Kingdom, 34 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Asset Value Investors | RESIDENTIAL SECURE INCOME PLC | 6.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | Sand Grove Capital | BLUEFIELD SOLAR INCOME FUND LIMITED | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | Causeway Capital | MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | Silchester International | HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-04-10 | fundsmith | THE SAGE GROUP PLC. | 5.0% |
| 2026-03-27 | newlands | CALNEX SOLUTIONS PLC | 3.1% |
| 2026-03-19 | Sand Grove Capital | AMEDEO AIR FOUR PLUS LIMITED | 5.1% |
| 2026-03-04 | Causeway Capital | WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | Sand Grove Capital | INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | Sand Grove Capital | KITWAVE GROUP PLC | 5.2% |
| 2026-01-22 | Sand Grove Capital | 1SPATIAL PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | primestone | THE PEBBLE GROUP PLC | 5.6% |
| 2026-01-06 | Lansdowne Partners | TUNGSTEN WEST PLC | 29.9% |
| 2025-12-19 | Silchester International | THE BERKELEY GROUP HOLDINGS PLC | 5.1% |
| 2025-12-04 | Causeway Capital | THE BERKELEY GROUP HOLDINGS PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-11-27 | Silchester International | GREGGS PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-11-18 | Silchester International | TRAVIS PERKINS PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | Oasis Management | OPTIMA HEALTH PLC | 5.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | newlands | SERAPHIM SPACE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC | 3.0% |
| 2025-07-30 | Silchester International | MONDI PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | Oasis Management | CAPITA PLC | 5.5% |
| 2025-06-18 | ennismore | NORMAN BROADBENT PLC | 17.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | primestone | GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-04-11 | Lansdowne Partners | BREEDON GROUP PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-04-07 | Oasis Management | HUNTING PLC | 5.1% |
| 2025-04-04 | Oasis Management | KIER GROUP PLC | 5.2% |
| 2025-03-28 | Oasis Management | COSTAIN GROUP PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-02-18 | harris_oakmark | SCHRODERS PLC | 5.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | lindsell_train | FEVERTREE DRINKS PLC | 10.7% |
| 2025-01-30 | newlands | INSPECS GROUP PLC | 3.3% |
| 2024-11-20 | Cevian Capital | VESUVIUS PLC | 22.0% |
| 2024-10-30 | Oasis Management | MARLOWE PLC | 5.0% |
| 2024-09-24 | Palliser Capital | CAPRICORN ENERGY PLC | 13.0% |
| 2024-09-05 | redwheel | INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS SERVICES PLC | 4.9% |
South Korea, 90 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-06-15 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 현대홈쇼핑 | 5.0% |
| 2026-06-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 엘앤씨바이오 | 5.4% |
| 2026-06-08 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 이지바이오 | 5.3% |
| 2026-05-29 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 현대백화점 | 5.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | Life Asset Mgmt | 엔젯 | 5.9% |
| 2026-05-21 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 프로텍 | 6.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 한라IMS | 6.7% |
| 2026-05-12 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 유성티엔에스 | 5.9% |
| 2026-04-29 | KCGI | 플루토스 | 8.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | Cha Partners | 백금T&A | 6.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 오로라 | 5.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 아세아시멘트 | 5.4% |
| 2026-03-27 | Truston Asset Mgmt | 탑선 | 47.1% |
| 2026-03-16 | Align Partners | 코웨이 | 5.1% |
| 2026-03-16 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 삼지전자 | 5.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | timefolio | 아이티켐 | 6.1% |
| 2026-02-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 유니테스트 | 7.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | Truston Asset Mgmt | 한국알콜 | 7.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | samsung_active | 뉴로핏 | 5.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | Align Partners | JB금융지주 | 14.6% |
| 2026-01-13 | samsung_active | 뉴로메카 | 5.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | timefolio | 리브스메드 | 9.3% |
| 2025-12-22 | Align Partners | 에이플러스에셋 | 12.1% |
| 2025-12-17 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 아세아 | 10.6% |
| 2025-12-15 | Value Partners (KR) | 에이아이코리아 | 5.2% |
| 2025-12-01 | samsung_active | 제이에스코퍼레이션 | 5.1% |
| 2025-11-27 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 롯데렌탈 | 5.2% |
| 2025-11-25 | Align Partners | 스틱인베스트먼트 | 6.6% |
| 2025-11-25 | Align Partners | 가비아 | 8.0% |
| 2025-11-25 | Align Partners | 덴티움 | 8.2% |
| 2025-11-21 | Truston Asset Mgmt | BYC | 7.1% |
| 2025-11-20 | shinyoung | E1 | 5.1% |
| 2025-11-17 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 세보엠이씨 | 5.2% |
| 2025-10-17 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 디지털대성 | 4.9% |
| 2025-09-26 | timefolio | 젝시믹스 | 7.1% |
| 2025-09-23 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 원익머트리얼즈 | 5.3% |
| 2025-09-22 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 달바글로벌 | 5.1% |
| 2025-09-18 | timefolio | 에이럭스 | 9.7% |
| 2025-09-12 | KCGI | 비트플래닛 | 8.5% |
| 2025-09-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 넥센타이어 | 5.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | Must Asset Mgmt | 데이원컴퍼니 | 5.3% |
| 2025-08-29 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 롯데웰푸드 | 5.0% |
| 2025-08-26 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 코리아에프티 | 5.8% |
| 2025-08-25 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 노바렉스 | 5.6% |
| 2025-08-25 | VIP Asset Mgmt | CJ프레시웨이 | 5.4% |
| 2025-08-08 | Life Asset Mgmt | 더블유에스아이 | 16.6% |
| 2025-08-06 | kclavis | 지슨 | 6.7% |
| 2025-08-01 | Truston Asset Mgmt | LF | 5.7% |
| 2025-07-24 | Truston Asset Mgmt | 태광산업 | 5.7% |
| 2025-07-18 | Must Asset Mgmt | 리파인 | 6.9% |
| 2025-07-16 | kclavis | 대신밸류리츠 | 11.7% |
| 2025-07-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 동국제약 | 6.7% |
| 2025-07-02 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 월덱스 | 6.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | samsung_active | 갤럭시아에스엠 | 5.3% |
| 2025-06-17 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 에스엠씨지 | 5.6% |
| 2025-06-16 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 휴메딕스 | 5.3% |
| 2025-05-26 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 롯데칠성음료 | 7.8% |
| 2025-05-19 | Must Asset Mgmt | 인카금융서비스 | 5.8% |
| 2025-05-12 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 케이씨씨글라스 | 5.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | VIP Asset Mgmt | F&F | 7.8% |
| 2025-04-18 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 대덕 | 5.6% |
| 2025-04-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 디와이파워 | 6.7% |
| 2025-04-09 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 이엔에프테크놀로지 | 6.1% |
| 2025-04-04 | Value Partners (KR) | 기가레인 | 27.5% |
| 2025-03-25 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 넥센 | 5.2% |
| 2025-03-14 | VIP Asset Mgmt | HL홀딩스 | 11.8% |
| 2025-03-12 | kclavis | 현대차증권 | 13.0% |
| 2025-02-03 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 티쓰리 | 5.1% |
| 2025-01-10 | shinyoung | 유니드 | 5.2% |
| 2024-12-24 | Life Asset Mgmt | 코퍼스코리아 | 5.9% |
| 2024-12-24 | Life Asset Mgmt | 오픈놀 | 5.6% |
| 2024-12-02 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 풍산홀딩스 | 11.4% |
| 2024-11-22 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 디와이피엔에프 | 5.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 백산 | 5.3% |
| 2024-11-20 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 솔루엠 | 5.4% |
| 2024-11-20 | shinyoung | 비에이치 | 5.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | VIP Asset Mgmt | HDC | 5.4% |
| 2024-11-11 | timefolio | 에어레인 | 6.2% |
| 2024-11-06 | Dalton Investments | 콜마홀딩스 | 5.0% |
| 2024-10-18 | timefolio | 녹십자엠에스 | 12.0% |
| 2024-10-16 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 클리오 | 5.8% |
| 2024-10-08 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 현대그린푸드 | 12.1% |
| 2024-09-30 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 영원무역홀딩스 | 5.1% |
| 2024-09-19 | KCGI | 한양증권 | 29.6% |
| 2024-09-11 | shinyoung | 동아쏘시오홀딩스 | 5.0% |
| 2024-09-10 | VIP Asset Mgmt | 글로벌텍스프리 | 8.8% |
| 2024-08-22 | Truston Asset Mgmt | STX엔진 | 6.3% |
| 2024-08-09 | kclavis | 지슨 | 8.4% |
| 2024-07-31 | KCGI | 넥스틴 | 12.5% |
| 2024-07-26 | VIP Asset Mgmt | SNT모티브 | 5.2% |
Europe (NL), 3 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Causeway Capital | Koninklijke Philips N.V. | 3.1% |
| 2025-08-20 | Cevian Capital | Akzo Nobel N.V. | 3.0% |
| 2024-09-02 | Eminence Capital | OCI N.V. | 3.0% |
United States. Congress · 267 recent buys
Members of Congress must disclose their trades within 45 days under the STOCK Act. These are the most recent purchases on the public record (last 120 days, 23 members). Amount is the midpoint of the disclosed dollar bracket.
| Traded | Member | Ticker | Amount |
|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Dan Newhouse House | ACN | ~$8k |
| 2026-07-10 | Dan Newhouse House | ANET | ~$8k |
| 2026-07-10 | Dan Newhouse House | AMCR | ~$8k |
| 2026-07-10 | Dan Newhouse House | APH | ~$8k |
| 2026-07-08 | Rick Larsen House | APH | ~$8k |
| 2026-07-08 | Rick Larsen House | MCK | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-30 | Gilbert Cisneros House | DSGX | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-30 | Gilbert Cisneros House | TXRH | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-30 | Gilbert Cisneros House | TCBI | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-30 | Gilbert Cisneros House | MCHP | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-26 | Cleo Fields House | NVDA | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-24 | Thomas H. Kean House | ESAB | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-22 | Thomas H. Kean House | ESAB | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-18 | Lloyd Doggett House | HD | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-17 | April McClain Delaney House | HUBB | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | Maria Elvira Salazar House | VOYG | ~$32k |
| 2026-06-15 | David J. Taylor House | IBP | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | John McGuire House | SPCX | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | Daniel Meuser House | SPCX | ~$32k |
| 2026-06-15 | David J. Taylor House | CVX | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | Cleo Fields House | GOOG | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | Jonathan Jackson House | HLT | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-15 | Jonathan Jackson House | SPHR | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-12 | Richard Dean Dr McCormick House | LHX | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-12 | Lloyd Doggett House | PPG | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-12 | Richard Dean Dr McCormick House | ICE | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-12 | Richard Dean Dr McCormick House | ABT | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-11 | Cleo Fields House | MSFT | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-10 | Lloyd Doggett House | IBM | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-09 | April McClain Delaney House | HUBB | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-09 | Byron Donalds House | ZTS | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-09 | Byron Donalds House | ZTS | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-09 | Lloyd Doggett House | JNJ | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-08 | April McClain Delaney House | HUBB | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-08 | April McClain Delaney House | ENTG | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-05 | David J. Taylor House | K | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-05 | David J. Taylor House | AMGN | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-04 | Robert E. Latta House | FMAO | ~$15k |
| 2026-06-04 | Thomas H. Kean House | WPM | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-04 | John McGuire House | META | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-04 | Maria Elvira Salazar House | BEP | ~$32k |
| 2026-06-04 | Cleo Fields House | QNT | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-04 | Maria Elvira Salazar House | BEP | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-04 | Tim Moore House | T | ~$75k |
| 2026-06-03 | Maria Elvira Salazar House | BEP | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-02 | Thomas H. Kean House | GIL | ~$8k |
| 2026-06-01 | Daniel Crenshaw House | USOU | ~$8k |
| 2026-05-22 | Josh Gottheimer House | LITE | ~$8k |
| 2026-05-21 | Josh Gottheimer House | MU | ~$8k |
| 2026-05-19 | Josh Gottheimer House | ADI | ~$8k |
Crypto, what onchain smart money holds
Tracked crypto funds and large holders, by total onchain portfolio value and 24-hour net flow. Onchain there is no filing threshold, the wallets are public, so positioning is visible in real time. Entity attribution comes from Arkham’s labels and is best-effort, not certified. Snapshot 2026-07-25.
| Entity | Onchain value | 24h flow | Top chains |
|---|
| Binance | $126.98B | -0.8% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Coinbase | $88.52B | -1.3% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Blackrock | $52.96B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Lido | $39.00B | -1.0% | ethereum, solana |
| Microstrategy | $30.88B | -1.5% | bitcoin |
| Okx | $22.93B | -0.8% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Upbit | $19.02B | -1.4% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Bitfinex | $18.74B | -1.2% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Robinhood | $18.47B | -1.3% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Kraken | $15.79B | -1.2% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Makerdao | $14.09B | -0.7% | ethereum, polygon |
| Bybit | $13.76B | -0.7% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Grayscale | $13.41B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Aave | $13.17B | -0.9% | ethereum, arbitrum_one |
| Tether | $12.84B | -0.7% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Morpho | $7.43B | -1.1% | ethereum, base |
| Ethena | $5.25B | -0.2% | ethereum, solana |
| Huobi | $5.05B | -0.1% | tron, bitcoin |
| Gemini | $5.05B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Uniswap | $4.93B | -0.4% | ethereum, bsc |
| Bitget | $4.87B | -1.0% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Crypto Com | $4.70B | -1.2% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Mexc | $4.43B | -0.4% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Bithumb | $4.37B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Gate Io | $3.98B | -0.7% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Bitwise | $3.95B | -1.6% | bitcoin, solana |
| Polygon | $3.38B | -0.2% | ethereum, polygon |
| Revolut | $3.20B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Justin Sun | $2.66B | -0.3% | ethereum, tron |
| Kucoin | $2.55B | -0.7% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Base | $2.26B | -1.4% | ethereum, base |
| Ark Invest | $2.18B | -1.5% | bitcoin |
| Worldcoin | $2.12B | -9.8% | ethereum, optimism |
| Paxos | $2.10B | -1.4% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Circle | $2.02B | -0.0% | solana, hyperevm |
| Wisdomtree | $1.43B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Optimism | $1.31B | -1.9% | ethereum, optimism |
| Wormhole | $1.30B | +1.4% | ethereum, bsc |
| Vaneck | $1.25B | -1.5% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| 21Shares | $1.20B | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Compound | $1.19B | -1.1% | ethereum, arbitrum_one |
| Jump Trading | $1.07B | -2.5% | solana, ethereum |
| Fidelity | $901.4M | -1.4% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Tesla | $737.7M | -1.5% | bitcoin |
| Galaxy Digital | $713.7M | -1.3% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Eigenlayer | $603.6M | -1.3% | ethereum, bsc |
| Wintermute | $596.4M | -1.2% | hyperevm, ethereum |
| Gnosis | $586.8M | -1.4% | ethereum, polygon |
| Hut 8 | $470.2M | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Cleanspark | $446.6M | -1.6% | bitcoin |
| Vitalik Buterin | $419.5M | -1.1% | ethereum, base |
| Franklin Templeton | $399.2M | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Coinshares | $393.0M | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Invesco | $365.9M | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Symbiotic | $332.0M | -19.2% | ethereum, base |
| Ens | $318.5M | -2.0% | ethereum, optimism |
| Falconx | $317.4M | -1.7% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Alameda Research | $297.9M | -2.4% | solana, bitcoin |
| A16Z | $240.7M | -0.3% | ethereum, optimism |
| Nakamoto | $217.2M | -1.6% | bitcoin, ethereum |
| Ethereum Foundation | $216.2M | -1.0% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Dragonfly Capital | $202.3M | -4.2% | ethereum, arbitrum_one |
| Starknet | $196.4M | +0.1% | ethereum, arbitrum_one |
| Riot Platforms | $192.9M | -1.6% | bitcoin |
| Layerzero | $184.6M | +6.6% | ethereum, avalanche |
| Antalpha | $140.7M | +0.1% | ethereum, bsc |
| Bitfarms | $84.3M | -1.6% | bitcoin |
| Pantera Capital | $56.4M | -5.2% | ethereum, arbitrum_one |
| Gsr Markets | $43.6M | -1.1% | ethereum, bitcoin |
| Amber | $39.6M | -0.5% | ethereum, bsc |
Prediction markets, what the crowd is pricing
Live odds from two prediction markets. Polymarket (global, on-chain) and Kalshi (US, CFTC-regulated). These are the crowd's current prices on open questions: the market's implied probability, not a Prior Moves forecast. Where real money is betting, as of 2026-07-29.
Politics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Fed Decision in July? - No change | 75% | $20.0M | 2026-07-29 |
| Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Abiy Ahmed | 95% | $6.2M | 2026-06-01 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 - JD Vance | 20% | $1.5M | 2028-11-07 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? - Mojtaba Khamenei | 79% | $825k | 2026-12-31 |
| Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026? - 65-89 | 76% | $615k | 2026-07-29 |
Economics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Largest Company end of July? - Apple | 89% | $316k | 2026-07-31 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | 76% | $195k | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase | 56% | $185k | 2026-09-16 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? - 0 (0 bps) | 86% | $174k | 2026-12-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 54% | $156k | 2026-12-31 |
Geopolitics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) - August 31 | 52% | $1.7M | 2026-08-31 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? - August 31 | 6% | $373k | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 24% | $263k | 2026-12-31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? - December 31 | 86% | $245k | 2026-12-31 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? - December 31 | 27% | $210k | 2026-12-31 |
Tech & Science
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Best Chinese AI Company end of July? - Alibaba | 69% | $74k | 2026-07-31 |
| 2nd Largest Company end of July? - NVIDIA | 90% | $41k | 2026-07-31 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? - NVIDIA | 48% | $28k | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-6 released by…? - December 31, 2026 | 88% | $20k | 2026-12-31 |
| Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic | 92% | $15k | 2026-08-31 |
Kalshi · regulated US (CFTC)
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? | 16% | 3k | 2029-01-20 |
| Will Trump resign during his term? | 18% | 1k | 2029-01-21 |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? - Before January 21, 2029 | 25% | 510 | 2029-01-21 |
| Who will be the next DNC Chair? - David Hogg | 49% | 300 | 2045-01-08 |
| Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? | 7% | 268 | 2029-01-21 |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? - Anthropic | 81% | 221 | 2040-01-01 |
| Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? | 62% | 176 | 2030-01-01 |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? - Before Jan 21, 2029 | 22% | 140 | 2029-01-21 |
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