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What the world's activists, and Congress, just bought
When a famous investor crosses a disclosure threshold, 5% in Japan, 3% in the UK, they must report it. When a member of the US Congress trades a stock, they must report that too. These are those filings: the most recent stakes and buys from the people worth watching, straight from the public record.
No forecast, no recommendation. Just what they bought, when, and how much. The same honesty rule as the rest of the site.
6341 disclosures · 3503 investors + members · Japan (EDINET) · UK (FCA) · Korea (DART) · US Congress (STOCK Act) · crypto (Arkham onchain) · prediction markets (Polymarket + Kalshi)
Japan, 415 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-09-14 | jp_三菱商事株式会社 | アルビス株式会社 | 15.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | jp_ＧＭＯインターネットグループ株式会社 | 株式会社ＦＦＲＩセキュリティ | 5.0% |
| 2026-08-26 | jp_ＧＭＯインターネットグループ株式会社 | 株式会社ＦＦＲＩセキュリティ | 5.0% |
| 2026-08-26 | jp_ＧＭＯインターネットグループ株式会社 | ＧＭＯプロダクトプラットフォーム | 64.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | jp_株式会社ＰＫＳＨＡ Ｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙ | 株式会社Sapeet | 32.0% |
United Kingdom, 33 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Asset Value Investors | RESIDENTIAL SECURE INCOME PLC | 6.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | Sand Grove Capital | BLUEFIELD SOLAR INCOME FUND LIMITED | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-28 | Causeway Capital | MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC | 5.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | Silchester International | HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC | 5.0% |
| 2026-04-10 | fundsmith | THE SAGE GROUP PLC. | 5.0% |
South Korea, 5587 new stakes
| Filed | Investor | Company | Stake |
|---|
| 2026-09-22 | kr_이엑스마일스톤조합 | 에넥스 | 28.5% |
| 2026-09-10 | kr_GICPrivateLimited | 삼성화재해상보험 | 5.0% |
| 2026-09-09 | kr_굿뉴스파트너스 | 에넥스 | 28.5% |
| 2026-09-07 | kr_미래에셋자산운용 | 하이젠알앤엠 | 5.1% |
| 2026-09-07 | kr_한국산업은행 | 스카이랩스 | 7.5% |
United States. Congress · 306 recent buys
Members of Congress must disclose their trades within 45 days under the STOCK Act. These are the most recent purchases on the public record (last 120 days, 25 members). Amount is the midpoint of the disclosed dollar bracket.
| Traded | Member | Ticker | Amount |
|---|
| 2026-09-08 | David J. Taylor House | PG | ~$8k |
| 2026-09-08 | David J. Taylor House | IBP | ~$8k |
| 2026-08-27 | Gilbert Cisneros House | ETN | ~$32k |
| 2026-08-27 | Gilbert Cisneros House | PWR | ~$32k |
| 2026-08-26 | David J. Taylor House | FITB | ~$8k |
Prediction markets, what the crowd is pricing
Live odds from two prediction markets. Polymarket (global, on-chain) and Kalshi (US, CFTC-regulated). These are the crowd's current prices on open questions: the market's implied probability, not a Prior Moves forecast. Where real money is betting, as of 2026-09-22.
Politics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro | 61% | $1.0M | 2026-10-04 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 - JD Vance | 21% | $841k | 2028-11-07 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026? - 200-219 | 70% | $564k | 2026-09-22 |
| Next French Presidential Election - Marine Le Pen | 38% | $481k | 2028-01-01 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Democrats Sweep | 66% | $470k | 2026-11-03 |
Economics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase | 54% | $962k | 2026-10-29 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? - NVIDIA | 76% | $46k | 2027-01-01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 20% | $33k | 2027-01-01 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | 10% | $32k | 2027-01-31 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? - 0 (0 bps) | 96% | $32k | 2027-01-01 |
Geopolitics
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by...? - December 31 | 32% | $382k | 2027-01-01 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16% | $280k | 2027-01-01 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? - December 31 | 64% | $234k | 2027-01-01 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? - Nicolás Maduro | 54% | $180k | 2027-01-01 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? - June 30, 2027 | 12% | $172k | 2027-07-01 |
Tech & Science
| Question | Implied | 24h vol | Resolves |
|---|
| Next Claude Opus released on...? - September 22 | 78% | $235k | 2026-09-23 |
| Anthropic lab leak by...? - June 30, 2027 | 6% | $75k | 2027-07-01 |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? - Anthropic | 70% | $39k | 2026-12-31 |
| OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? - December 31, 2027 | 82% | $24k | 2028-01-01 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of September? - Alibaba | 89% | $20k | 2026-09-30 |
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