Prediction accuracy leaderboard
Ranked by walk-forward prediction accuracy (AUC): how well the model calls this investor's next new buy, out of sample. This is not a return ranking. AUC 0.50 is a coin flip; higher is better. Samples are small and every per-investor edge is noisy and not statistically significant. Research, not advice.
Every other smart-money tracker ranks realised returns. This ranks something only a prediction model can: how well the next new buy is called before it files. As of 2026-09-30. 26 followed investors.
AUC here grades the model on each investor’s own disclosed book, which is a narrower question than the live board answers. The number that describes the product is measured instead: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the top-ranked name was the actual next new buy 1.7% of the time against 0.62% at random, which is 2.77x chance. Full scoring detail on how it works.
| # | Investor | Predict AUC | Ahead of index | Quarters | Top predicted buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renaissance Technologies Renaissance Technologies | 0.796 | 38% | 34 | INTU |
| 2 | Tom Russo Gardner Russo & Quinn | 0.789 | 38% | 34 | SUNB |
| 3 | Prem Watsa Fairfax | 0.757 | 35% | 34 | RRC |
| 4 | Chris Bloomstran Semper Augustus | 0.754 | 41% | 34 | SUNB |
| 5 | Howard Marks Oaktree | 0.739 | 44% | 34 | BKLN |
AUC is out-of-sample walk-forward: each quarter is predicted using only earlier quarters. 0.50 is a coin flip. Ahead-of-index is the share of backtested quarters in which the investor’s predicted top-10 finished ahead of the S&P 500 (gross, before costs). Samples are small and none of these per-investor edges is statistically significant. See how it works, calibration, and the methodology. Research, not investment advice.