🪞 Li Lu · Himalaya Capital
Concentrated value. Li Lu, Munger's pick.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Not scored. This board has 1 walk-forward quarter carrying enough new positions to grade, fewer than the 6 this test needs. It is published unscored. Nothing here is a verdict on the investor.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Li Lu · Himalaya Capital’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | TME | Tencent Music Entertainm-Adr | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 24.55% | ✊ Held |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc | 23.39% | ✊ Held |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 22.17% | ➕ Added |
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 14.98% | ➕ Added |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp Inc | 9.68% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 8 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $357.37 | $287 to $402 | $354.97 | -0.7% |
| GOOG | $353.33 | $287 to $399 | $350.87 | -0.7% |
| PDD | $76.28 | $73 to $105 | $79.29 | +4.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
49% of Li Lu · Himalaya Capital’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (7 of 7 names, ~406 trading days). Market beta 0.98.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.