🪞 Jana
Dormant. This investor last filed a 13F for Jun 2023 and has not filed under this CIK since. The holdings below are that final disclosed book, kept as a historical record; no new predictions are produced for a book that has stopped reporting.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Not separated from chance. Across 7 quarters this ranking scored 0.565 against 0.500, two-sided p = 0.1354. An edge above 0.585 would have registered on this board, so the test could have resolved it and did not. A figure under 0.500 here is the sampling noise around a coin flip, not a signal pointing the wrong way. Pooling every scored row instead of averaging the quarters, which uses the big quarters and the thin ones at their real weight, the same board reads 0.564 over 5,211 rows (two-sided p = 0.086).
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📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2023
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRPT | Freshpet Inc | 21.09% | ✊ Held |
| THS | Treehouse Foods Inc | 17.90% | ✊ Held |
| NEWREUR | New Relic Inc | 15.71% | ✊ Held |
| FIS | Fidelity Natl Information Sv | 15.10% | ✊ Held |
| MRCY | Mercury Sys Inc | 11.36% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 9 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRPT | $65.81 | $60 to $71 | $61.44 | -6.6% |
| FIS | $54.70 | $48 to $53 | $35.62 | -34.9% |
| MRCY | $34.59 | $32 to $52 | $85.28 | +146.5% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
43% of Jana’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (6 of 8 names, ~407 trading days). Market beta 0.64.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.