🪞 Norbert Lou · Punch Card
Ultra-concentrated value (3–5 names).
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Not scored. This board has 0 walk-forward quarters carrying enough new positions to grade, fewer than the 6 this test needs. It is published unscored. Nothing here is a verdict on the investor.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Norbert Lou · Punch Card’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | UPS | United Parcel Service-Cl B | 1.7% | 2.7x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Norbert Lou · Punch Card’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 7.39% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 59 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Norbert Lou · Punch Card reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 42.42% | ✊ Held |
| CROX | Crocs Inc | 27.20% | ✊ Held |
| PDD | Pdd Holdings Inc | 12.37% | ✊ Held |
| PYPL | Paypal Hldgs Inc | 10.61% | ✊ Held |
| SGOV | Ishares Tr | 7.39% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 5 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-A | $748850.00 | $699965 to $748850 | $764000.00 | +2.0% |
| CROX | $120.64 | $83 to $128 | $122.24 | +1.3% |
| PDD | $76.28 | $73 to $105 | $79.29 | +4.0% |
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
33% of Norbert Lou · Punch Card’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (4 of 4 names, ~406 trading days). Market beta 0.84.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.