🪞 Paul Singer · Elliott
Activist + distressed.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Measured above chance. Across 21 quarters of walk-forward holdout this ranking scored 0.603 where a coin flip scores 0.500, two-sided p = 0.0003. Pooling every scored row instead of averaging the quarters, which uses the big quarters and the thin ones at their real weight, the same board reads 0.602 over 13,968 rows (two-sided p = 0.000).
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Paul Singer · Elliott’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHI | Dr Horton Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 2 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Paul Singer · Elliott’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-06-30.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP | Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T | 0.37% | just entered | ▲▲ 63 |
| IGV | Ishares Tr | 6.29% | just entered | ▲ 57 |
| SMH | Vaneck Etf Trust | 0.72% | just entered | ▲ 57 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Paul Singer · Elliott reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Triple Flag Precious Metal | 17.61% | ✊ Held |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 14.36% | ✊ Held |
| NDQ | Invesco Qqq Tr | 11.30% | ➕ Added |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc New | 6.97% | ➖ Trimmed |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise C | 6.42% | ➕ Added |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 28 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | $169.05 | $154 to $184 | $273.13 | +61.6% |
| SU | $53.68 | $53 to $69 | $69.41 | +29.3% |
| HPE | $45.11 | $24 to $56 | $61.75 | +36.9% |
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| NDQ | puts | bearish / hedge |
| IGV | puts | bearish / hedge |
| XLI | puts | bearish / hedge |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
77% of Paul Singer · Elliott’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (11 of 12 names, ~406 trading days). Market beta 1.04.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
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Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.