🪞 Guy Spier · Aquamarine
Buffett-style value.
Hit rate is measured, not predicted: across 2,030 investor-quarters of walk-forward holdout, the name this model ranked first was the investor’s actual next new buy 1.7% of the time, against 0.62% for a name drawn at random from the same board. That is 2.77x chance. The model ranks the whole board; AUC and the rest of the scoring detail are on the how it works page.
Not scored. This board has 1 walk-forward quarter carrying enough new positions to grade, fewer than the 6 this test needs. It is published unscored. Nothing here is a verdict on the investor.
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🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-09-30
The model orders Guy Spier · Aquamarine’s candidates for the next 13F filing. No public confirmation yet. The rate beside each name is the model’s own score rewritten as a measured quantity: how often a name in that position turned out to be the next buy across 2,030 investor-quarters of holdout. Picking at random from this board lands 0.62%.
| # | Ticker | Company | Measured hit rate | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRC | Range Resources Corp | 1.8% | 2.9x |
| 2 | DT | Dynatrace Inc | 1.7% | 2.8x |
| 3 | MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc | 1.7% | 2.7x |
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Jun 2026
Guy Spier · Aquamarine files early: typically ~day 16 after quarter end against the day-45 deadline, so this mirror refreshes about 4 weeks before most of the roster.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK/B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 33.89% | ✊ Held |
| BRK/A | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del | 15.59% | ✊ Held |
| AXP | American Express Co | 15.26% | ✊ Held |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | 14.26% | ✊ Held |
| DUT | Moodys Corp | 8.49% | ✊ Held |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 7 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | $500.39 | $465 to $500 | $509.77 | +1.9% |
| BRK-A | $748866.67 | $699965 to $748850 | $764000.00 | +2.0% |
| AXP | $338.25 | $299 to $342 | $313.59 | -7.3% |
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